Trading Update : 23 April 2026

Clarity on markets

Markets are bracing for turbulence as geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, amplify inflationary risks, pressure global supply chains, and weigh on business confidence. While the aviation sector retreats and data-centre operators grapple with a growing debt problem, pockets of resilience and strategic growth remain. Microsoft continues to bet big on AI infrastructure; Tencent is expanding its fintech footprint, and Capitec continues to deliver stellar growth. Locally, food and fuel inflation are threatening discretionary spending and interest rates.

Damage control

The global air transport industry has reduced its capacity for May, with most of the 20 largest airlines slashing flights, according to Cirium Ltd data shared by Bloomberg. Many airlines are entering self-preservation mode, expecting the conflict to be detrimental to their business for the foreseeable future, and are reducing capacity and grounding planes to mitigate the damage.

Delivery dealings

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER-NASQ) is buying a 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero SE from Prosus (PRX-JSE) for €270 million, which will bring Uber’s total stake to 7%. Prosus is selling the shares to meet European antitrust requirements after buying Just Eat Takeaway.com in a $4.3 billion deal.

Aussie AI

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT-NASQ) announced its biggest-ever investment in Australia, pledging to spend A$25 billion by the end of 2029 as it pushes deeper into the artificial intelligence market.

The DC debt trap

According to quotes from Greg Goodman, CEO of Goodman Group, carried by Bloomberg, a global wave of mergers and acquisitions is looming among private equity-backed data-centre companies as their debt burdens become unmanageable. Rising refinancing costs and unsustainable debt are concerns for the data centre sector, with billions of dollars of refinancing required to keep companies sustainable, says Goodman.

Seeking energy alternatives

Bloomberg reports that China’s exports of clean technology climbed in March, reinforcing signs that manufacturers are benefiting from rising global demand for alternative energy sources as traditional supplies are roiled by the Iran war.

The trillion-dollar question

Apple (AAPL-NASQ) stock slipped 1% in late US trading on Monday, April 20, after the Cupertino giant announced Tim Cook would step down from his role as CEO on September 1, 2026. John Ternus, currently Apple’s senior vice president of hardware engineering, was named as its next CEO. Cook, who has led Apple since 2011 and grown the company’s market capitalisation to over $4 trillion, will become executive chairman of the board.

Widening fintech footprint

Naspers (NPN-JSE) and Prosus (PRX-JSE)-owned Tencent has invested in Kazakhstan fintech company Kaspi.kz alongside co-founder and CEO Mikheil Lomtadze and other US investors. The total deal value is approximately $518 million based on market prices at the time of announcement, with Tencent acquiring a 3.2% stake.

The cost of war

SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago had warned that war inflation risks are playing out, but did not give a clear signal on what that means for interest rates. He was also careful not to signal where policymakers were leaning ahead of the SARB’s next rate decision. He warned that markets may be underestimating how long damage to refineries in the Persian Gulf could constrain physical oil supply, and said any reduction in fuel levies should be temporary.

SA retail recovery in limbo

In addition to the supply chain shocks and fuel inflation, SA retailers will likely face additional headwinds due to upside risk for food inflation from a strong El Niño and higher oil and fertiliser prices. This is likely to delay the recovery in discretionary spending, at a time when fuel-driven cost inflation will pressure margins. In this environment, large food retailers that can leverage scale, private label and trade-down dynamics, like Shoprite (SHP-JSE) and Boxer (BOX-JSE), should remain relative winners.

Iron-clad resolution

BHP Group (BHG-JSE) has struck a supply deal with China’s state-backed iron ore buyer, China Mineral Resources Group Co., ending a months-long standoff. Bloomberg reports that the deal has eased restrictions on purchases of BHP’s output, with ports telling customers that new deliveries of cargoes are allowed, and has soothed the market.

Waning optimism

South African business confidence moderated in March as the US-Israeli war with Iran roiled financial, commodity and foreign-exchange markets. Sentiment data compiled by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry saw the index drop to 131.3 from 134.6 in the previous month.

Stock focus: Capitec Bank

Capitec Bank (CPI-JSE) released another set of bumper financial results for the 2026 fiscal year, which was largely expected by the market. The results showed a very steady performance with a minor surprise to the upside in profits, largely due to better-than-expected day-to-day operating expense management. A standout feature of these results is how successfully the bank is growing its customer base across all areas of the business. Even after cutting certain fees, Capitec managed to grow the money it makes from transactions and commissions by an impressive 16.1%, which exceeded analyst expectations. While the bank’s loan book looks healthy right now with strong asset quality, investors should keep a close eye on this as the year progresses; the bank is lending more money, but at the same time, it has slightly lowered the “safety buffer” (known as ECL coverage) it keeps to cover potential bad debts. This is worth watching, especially if the broader economy hits a rough patch. Currently, the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical average, which suggests the market is pricing in high expectations for the bank’s continued growth.