Trading Update : 14 May 2026

There’s plenty to unpack in our mid-May market wrap. AI doomsayers are growing louder, while the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz saga is still rippling through markets. Fertilisers are the latest casualty, with possible consequences for food inflation and supply. President Trump’s influence on markets remains a key theme, with a vape-friendly FDA shift lighting up tobacco stocks, while a handpicked group of US CEOs joined him on his China summit. On the blue chip stock front, BHP is chasing copper, Redefine is showing the office sector isn’t dead yet, and Prosus is finding it harder to deliver more than they thought.

FDA lights up tobacco stocks

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM-NASQ) and British American Tobacco (BTI-JSE) gained 4% and 2%, respectively, on news that President Trump has pressured the FDA to remove obstacles to US manufacturers selling flavoured vape products. The market is also expecting numerous delayed approvals for new modern oral variants to receive clearance; the most notable are Zyn variants (owned by Philip Morris), which would allow them to compete more effectively with Velo, which is owned by British American Tobacco.

In the dwang

Mosaic (MOS-NASQ) – one of the world’s largest fertiliser companies – fell -1.8% as the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global sulfuric acid supply.

Sulfuric acid is a primary input in fertiliser production, with 45% of the global supply passing through the Strait. The implications include a significantly higher probability of a food inflation spike, with the potential to disrupt food security, as farmers without consistent access to credit or government support will struggle. Mosaic management pulled annual production guidance, and CEO Bruce Bodine is firm that the whole phosphate value chain is underwater given the current input cost environment.

Working trip

The White House has invited various CEOs from large companies, including Tesla (TSLA-NASQ), Apple (AAPL-NASQ), Boeing Co. (BA-NASQ), BlackRock (BLK-NASQ), and JPMorgan (JPM-NASQ), to accompany President Donald Trump on his trip to China this week for the Trump-Xi summit.

Crash, boom, bang

Bloomberg has carried a warning from Michael Burry, the investor made famous in The Big Short, that the Nasdaq 100 Index (STXNDQ-JSE) is headed toward a dramatic reversal after a “parabolic” surge that has driven technology valuations to unsustainable heights. Concerns are also growing about the AI arms race, which will cost $5 trillion over the next five years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s latest forecast, with estimates that just keep rising.

Code red

The impact of the energy crisis on the global economy in recent months is showing up in gauges of supply-chain stress that last flashed red during the pandemic, adding to reasons for central banks to be on guard for a recurrence of high inflation. Bloomberg reported that fresh strains are reflected in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. After going quiet for the past three years, it’s risen for three straight months, with an especially pronounced increase in April to the highest level in almost four years.

Mining M&A loading…

BHP Group’s (BHG-JSE) incoming CEO, Brandon Craig, has not ruled out dealmaking as a key part of the mining giant’s growth strategy. According to comments made at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Miami, Craig said the company’s acquisition targets are focused on copper. “The point is not growth for growth’s sake; it is value-accretive growth that ultimately matters.”

REIT on track

Redefine Properties (RDF-JSE) delivered a strong performance in H1 2026, outperforming its own expectations. The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) grew its Distributable Income Per Share (DIPS) – the profit available to be paid to shareholders – by 6.9%, leading management to raise their full-year growth forecast to 6-7%. While their industrial properties performed best and retail remained steady, the office sector lagged slightly. However, analysts believe the worst of the rent cuts in offices is finally over. For investors, Redefine is currently offering an attractive 8.4% dividend yield, which is higher than the industry average of 7.8%, suggesting a better cash return relative to the stock price than you would with many of its competitors.

Poor delivery

Prosus NV (PRX-JSE) shares fell to the lowest in more than a year after the Dutch technology investor released an update that analysts said showed the guidance for food-delivery units Just Eat Takeaway.com and iFood was weaker than expected. Quoted in Bloomberg, CEO Fabricio Bloisi said Prosus is targeting $3.6 billion in revenue from Just Eat in a year as it looks to boost efficiency in its European food-delivery business at a time of rapid consolidation in the sector.

Byting back

The latest financial year-end results from Bytes Technology Group (BYI-JSE) show a company on an improved trajectory. Gross profit continues to tick higher, which in turn will support an acceleration in earnings before tax on normalised costs. It seems the operational changes are starting to yield results, which are reflected in the latest figures, making this stock one to watch.

Stock focus: Boxer

The FY26 results for Boxer (BOX-JSE) show a company performing better than experts predicted, with headline earnings (profit from core operations) jumping 13.6% to R1.6 billion. Despite lowering some prices to stay competitive, the company got more efficient, improving its profit margins to 5.7%. While sales growth slowed slightly toward the end of the year and into the first nine days of the new period – largely because the prices of the goods they sell dropped (internal deflation) – the underlying volume of items sold remains strong. For the first time, shareholders are being rewarded with a dividend of 96 cents per share. Looking ahead, Boxer expects a tough environment as rising oil prices push up costs, but they plan to protect profits by gradually raising prices and benefiting from shoppers “trading down” to their more affordable options. Given these solid fundamentals, the stock is currently valued at roughly 20.7 times its expected future earnings.