Trading update : 12 March 2026

Head-spinning is the best way to characterise markets since the US and Israel attacked Iran. Wild swings in the oil price, mixed messages from the Trump administration, and threats to escalate from the Iranian regime have forced investors to take a wait-and-see approach.

Despite the impact on markets, the AI theme continues to drive pockets of performance, with developments in China powering tech stocks like Naspers and Prosus while the world keeps its eyes firmly trained on the Middle East.

Digital destruction

Electronic warfare in the Persian Gulf is disrupting navigation and increasing the risk of maritime collisions, with shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing due to the US and Israel’s war against the government in Tehran.

Bloomberg reports that widespread signal jamming is impacting GPS and automatic identification systems, making safe navigation through the war zone more difficult and affecting over 1,100 ships in the Persian Gulf.

The jamming has reduced ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by more than 95%, with only a handful of vessels still departing the Gulf and doing so with location transponders turned off, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bad bet

According to Citadel Securities, investors are wrong to bet that the ECB will raise rates this year while the Fed cuts. The oil shock from the Iran conflict makes such policy divergence unlikely, reports Bloomberg, as it’s set to weigh more heavily on growth in Europe and the UK than in the US.

Stagflation nation

US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose, raising doubts about the health of the labour market.

Bloomberg reported that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 last month, following a strong start to the year, citing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%. The decline in payrolls partly reflected a decrease in health care employment due to strike activity.

A stagnating labour market, coupled with the prospect of accelerating inflation, will put US assets on the back foot again, curbing their status as a relative safe haven amid the escalating war in Iran.

Well oiled

According to economists’ predictions carried by Bloomberg, while China has a high exposure to Middle East energy, the impact of the oil price surge on its economy is likely to be contained.

Factors that may cushion the impact of surging crude costs include government regulation of refined oil prices, greater adoption of clean energy, the ability to secure alternative sources, large domestic reserves, and a stronger yuan. State-owned oil companies can absorb up to about 40% of higher crude costs before passing them on to end users, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Moreover, as oil consumption is estimated to have peaked in 2021, and clean energy accounted for about 30% of total energy use in 2025, the economy’s sensitivity to oil price spikes has been reduced, the bank said in a report last week.

EM inflows

Investors added money to the biggest exchange-traded fund (ETF) that buys emerging-market bonds at the fastest pace in three years in early March. The $17.3 billion iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF recorded more than $1.2 billion in fresh capital, marking its biggest weekly gain since January 2023. Bloomberg data shows that total inflows to US-listed emerging market ETFs totalled $874.3 million in the week ended March 6, compared with gains of $7.66 billion in the previous week.

Racing to energy independence

Jefferies is telling clients to double down on clean energy investments despite the current surge in oil and gas prices. According to Bloomberg, the bank expects the Iran war to trigger a new wave of investment in renewables as governments race to increase energy independence.

AI WorkBuddy

According to Citi analyst comments carried by Bloomberg, Tencent’s WorkBuddy, an AI intelligent agent that manages and executes tasks for users, could represent a “pivotal shift from the current ‘Chat AI’ paradigm to ‘execution AI’ within China”.

Individuals leveraging the tool will have their own AI assistants and will see a profound transformation in daily life and work, the analysts wrote.

The tool is expected to provide opportunities for Tencent to further integrate AI agents within its WeChat mini-program ecosystem. The news saw Naspers (NPN-JSE) and Prosus (PRX) surge despite the risk-off market sentiment.

Tencent’s content dance

Tencent Holdings also intends to invest several hundred million dollars in Paramount Skydance Corp.’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc, according to media reports. However, the decision is not yet finalised, and it could take a while for the deal to be completed, reported Bloomberg.

SA on track

S&P Global Ratings says the South African budget deficit projected in the fiscal framework released by the National Treasury last week was in line with the positive outlook it has on the country’s credit assessment, reports Bloomberg.

Revenue outperformance and tight expenditure controls are delivering consistent primary surpluses, placing the country on a credible path of fiscal consolidation. Reforms in electricity, logistics, and other key sectors are lifting medium-term growth prospects, reducing structural constraints.

The coalition government is also sustaining broad reform progress and policy continuity, strengthening confidence in macroeconomic management.

However, the country’s outlook will likely be affected by the Middle East crisis.

Panning for gold

Pan African Resources (PAN-JSE) is set to acquire Emmerson Resources, a Perth-based explorer with an emerging gold royalty business, for £163 million based on the closing share price on Friday, March 6.

The paper transaction will see Emmerson shareholders receive 0.1493 new Pan African Resources shares. As part of the scheme, Pan African will also undertake an ASX listing.

Pan African Resources is using its expensive paper to consolidate the ownership of Tennant Creek Mineral field and exploration projects in Australia while preserving its balance sheet.

Stock focus: AVI Limited

AVI Limited (AVI-JSE), which houses retail food brands like Five Roses, Freshpak, and Bakers, delivered a pleasing set of half-year (H1) financial results. The underlying story is one of a high-quality company firing on all cylinders despite a tough economy. AVI reported an 11.9% increase in headline earnings (dHEPS), with analysts expecting this growth to continue steadily into 2027.

This predictability and consistent performance offers safety for investors, particularly given global market conditions at present. The 27.2% operating margin in their Groceries unit is a headline-grabbing result, showcasing AVI’s pricing power in a challenging consumer market.

In a volatile market where many companies are struggling with debt or shrinking margins, AVI stands out as a defensive powerhouse.