Trading update : 16 April 2026

An optimistic outlook

Markets followed Wall Street higher on optimism that easing tensions will lower oil prices and support economic growth, with technology stocks leading gains as US stocks closed at record highs on Wednesday. This was helped by a strong start to corporate earnings season, which stoked investor optimism. The S&P 500 (VOO-NASQ) finished the day up 0.8% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (STXNDQ-JSE) ended the day up 1.4%, at a new record high. Citadel Securities also released a statement saying US stocks are poised to benefit from a mix of returning investor flows, falling volatility, and a positive technical backdrop.

Making bank

Bank of America Corp. (BAC-NASQ)  and Morgan Stanley (MS-NASQ) rose as their equity traders posted strong revenue beats, while Goldman Sachs (GS-NASQ) fell -1.87%, despite reporting strong Q1 results, with net revenues up +14% year on year and +28% quarter on quarter. The sell-off suggests market expectations were extremely high. The bank’s advisory division (+89%) was the standout, but equity financing also performed well, posting a 59% increase. Geographically, Asia was the star of the show. With a strong IPO cycle looming, Goldman Sachs looks set to enjoy senior and incredibly lucrative roles in SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic.

Inflation fears

US inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years as the war with Iran sent gasoline prices skyrocketing. The consumer price index rose 0.9% from February, and picked up to 3.3% year on year – the strongest pace since 2024. A record increase in gas prices was responsible for nearly three-quarters of the monthly advance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Another measure that excludes food and energy costs increased at a slower 0.2% pace. Headline CPI is expected to follow a similar trend in April, even if a long-lasting deal to end the war is reached, and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened.

The crude cost of war

The head of the International Energy Agency has a dire warning for markets: Oil prices don’t yet reflect the severity of the unprecedented supply crisis caused by the Iran war, but they soon will. In a Bloomberg report, Dr. Fatih Birol explained that more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged during the hostilities, and a recovery could take as long as two years. With the last oil tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of war set to reach refineries in the coming days, analysts have warned that the current situation could herald physical shortages in Europe and the US within weeks. A Vitol analyst said oil refining capacity in the Persian Gulf has been disrupted by about 3 million barrels a day (b/d) due to the conflict, with another 2 to 3 million b/d affected primarily in Asia because of crude supply shortages.

Plastic price pain

Companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM-NASQ) and Dow Inc plan to boost prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Bloomberg reported that Dow will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins (common plastics found in packaging, films and containers) through at least May.

Renewed impetus

Chinese clean-tech manufacturers are benefiting from the supply crunch in the Persian Gulf due to rising oil and natural gas prices and a renewed emphasis on energy security. According to Bloomberg, Ningbo Deye Technology Co. expects Q1 profit to climb as much as 70% on a surge in overseas orders, and exports of Chinese-made electric vehicles and hybrids more than doubled in March.

Upgraded!

S&P Ratings upgraded Sibanye Stillwater’s (SSW-JSE) long-term rating to BB from BB- and changed its outlook from negative to stable. The upgrade is driven by expectations of stronger credit metrics, underpinned by robust earnings and the disciplined execution of financial policy.

Property purchase

Emira Property Fund Limited (EMI-JSE) is aggressively expanding its footprint through a strategic 20.17% acquisition of Octodec, purchased off-market from institutional asset managers for approximately R891.8 million. Emira has now launched a voluntary cash offer to retail shareholders at R16.75 per share, aiming to increase its stake to 34.9%. For Octodec holders, this provides a liquidity event at a fixed price, though notably at a steep discount to the company’s R24.55 net asset value. For Emira investors, the move secures a significant dividend stream from Octodec’s urban property portfolio without triggering the 35% rule, which would mandate a costly full takeover bid. Octodec shareholders have until May 8, 2026, to decide whether to take the cash or hold for long-term recovery.

Sector focus: Mining

South African gold production rose +12.8% year on year (y/y) in February, compared to +0.7% in January, according to Statistics South Africa. Mining production rose 9.7% y/y versus a revised +5.0% in January, while PGM production rose a massive +52.3% y/y versus a revised +10.9% in January.